What should the European football summer transfer window look like in 2020?
Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, Manchester City, Juventus, a large number of giants that need to be considered for renewal in the center position, will they scramble to pay a high price for Harland? In the year of the European Cup, can a group of unknown players show up and sell at high prices? Can Neymar, who has been making a fuss about returning to Barcelona, finally make it? What kind of sky-high price can be hit this time?
But this situation has basically been determined to be impossible.
In an interview with "Kicker", Bayern’s former chairman Hernes said: "Affected by this new crown epidemic, I can’t imagine that there will be a 100 million yuan transfer in the near future, and the overall transfer fee will drop. I'm down. I think in the next two to three years, the overall purchase cost of football will not be the same as before. After the epidemic, we are likely to usher in a brand new football world."
One. The old and new eras of the European transfer market
It is difficult to have an accurate statement about when the world football transfer market started to turn upside down.
According to the recent review of the German "Transfer Market" website, the world football value list since 2005, Ronaldinho, who has dominated the list for 4 consecutive years, has risen from 50 million euros to 80 million, and then Melo's double pride Times, but the two were only worth 70 million at the beginning, and gradually rose to more than 100 million later.
With Melo's ability, his net worth at the peak of his 25-year-old was just over 100 million, indicating that at least the football at the time was quite rational. The transfer fee record was 94 million euros when Ronaldo switched to Real Madrid in 2009.
In 2013, Bell switched from Bailu Alley to Bernabéu. The official transfer fee given by Real Madrid was 91 million euros. However, "Aspen" reported that the transfer amount actually reached 110 million euros, and Bell was also the first Mr. 100 million yuan. . But in order to avoid Cristiano Ronaldo feeling unbalanced, Real Madrid concealed the actual figures. Neymar joined Barcelona in the same period, the transfer fee is equally unclear, ranging from 57 million euros to 88 million to 100 million.
If the revelations are not true, then the advent of the era of Mr. billion in football will be postponed for three years. In 2016, Pogba, who had been in trouble all summer, finally returned to Old Trafford, with a transfer fee of 105 million euros. But Pogba’s transfer fee is only 94.5 million pounds in British pounds, not more than 100 million pounds.
The summer of 2017 was the craziest summer in transfer history. Neymar's switch to Paris has become an absolute Mr. 100 million yuan in terms of both the British pound and the euro. This transaction has also completely changed the trading model of European football. The value of more than 100 million yuan and the liquidated damages forcibly lead people to become Routine operation. In the same summer, there were 125 million Euros of Dembele, 160 million Coutinho in 2018, and 180 million Mbappe for rental fees.
The summer of 2019 is another crazy transfer window in European football. In the top three of La Liga alone, each has a 100 million yuan gentleman, namely Hazard (100 million euros) and Griezmann (120 million euros) , Felix (126 million euros). In addition, there are many high-priced transfers such as De Ligt (85 million euros) and Maguire (87 million euros). Some of them are central defenders and some are less than 20 years old. New star.
In this way, Neymar is truly opening the billion-dollar era of the transfer market. After Bell’s transfer, it took nearly three years for the next 100 million yuan transfer to appear, and Pogba’s transfer did not cause much chain reaction, nor did it completely change the transfer market. game rules.
two. The Super League also has a highlight
Although China is a considerable distance from the center of world football in terms of geographical location and competitive level, Chinese football still plays an important role in the transfer market.
The domestic transfer market is out of balance, a little earlier than European football. Before 2016, when domestic teams bought foreign aid, the first criterion was that strength is greater than fame. The South American Trident, which Evergrande won the AFC Champions League for the first time that year, was 8.7 million euros for Konka, 2.4 million euros for Muric, and 5.7 million euros for Exxon. Although they are all expensive in Asia, they have not yet risen to world-class standards.
The first astronomical transfer of the Chinese Super League to "rob" European football was in February 2016 when Guangzhou Evergrande bought Jackson Martinez for 42 million euros. The curtain of the Chinese Super League arms race was then opened. Just a few days later, Jiangsu Suning bought Teixeira for 50 million euros, both of whom were prey from Liverpool and other giants. In July and December of the same year, Shanghai SIPG broke the Chinese Super League transfer fee record twice and introduced two Brazilian internationals Hulk and Oscar. In this year's world football transfer fee, Oscar can be ranked third, behind Pogba and Higuain, behind Stones, Sane, Mane and others.
It should be noted that before coming to China, Oscar has lost his main position in Chelsea. Teixeira, Hulk and Martinez are almost the same. Although they killed the Quartet in the second-tier league, the European war also had a flash, but they did not Really proved himself in the five major leagues. The Chinese Super League team has pulled a group of second-tier stars to the first line, which also has a certain impact on the increase in transfer fees in European football.
3. The sky-high transfer price may be difficult to reproduce in the short term
What will the world football transfer market look like after the epidemic?
The "Transfer Market" website recently carried out a special value update of "the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic". After the update, the global value has evaporated 9.2 billion euros.
According to Zhu Yi, the administrator of the German transfer to China, considering the impact of the recent new crown pneumonia epidemic on the total amount of funds in the global football market, coupled with the impact of the football market value caused by the suspension of football matches, the value of all players was reduced by 20%. Players who were born from the beginning will only be reduced by 10%, and the value of players worth less than 300,000 euros will not be adjusted. Of course, no one can guarantee that this decline will end there.
After the decline, most of the players' worth became normal and it was naturally difficult to sell at sky-high prices. The top three currently worthy are Mbappé (180 million euros), Sterling (128 million euros) and Neymar (128 million euros). Putting this price under normal circumstances, many teams may be able to drop it, but without income for a long time, even local tyrants like Manchester City and Paris may have to weigh their own wallets.
In addition to the epidemic, the further implementation of the Fiscal Fairness Act may also be a factor that may inhibit 100 million yuan transfers.
Although the lawsuit is not over yet, Manchester City has been fined for losing the Champions League qualification for two seasons. This historically heavy penalty may make the big bosses think twice before signing the check. Even without this epidemic, I believe that UEFA will also take heavy measures to rectify money burning.
In addition, after the epidemic is under control and sports games can resume, all countries also need sports box offices to stimulate economic recovery. Then, with big-name stars as a box office guarantee, clubs will certainly not let them go easily. In addition, the Super League is also facing salary cuts and other measures, and the gold rush to leave Europe is also closed.
Under various influences, in a short period of time, transfers at the level of 100 million yuan may be difficult to reproduce, and the transfer market may also usher in new rules of the game.
There are not many exchanges in football. Sanchez and Mkhitaryan are the more well-known ones. In the transaction between Ibrahimovic and Eto'o, Inter Milan also added 35 million euros, so this is not strictly a direct exchange. change.
Swap in the NBA is a very common way of trading. The biggest difference between football and the NBA is that the NBA strictly exchanges contracts. Players change from team A to team B. The contract treatment is still based on the signing of the A team. So as long as the two bosses reach an agreement, the players may not know, and the deal can be finalized. In football, even if the players of the team have reached an agreement, the number of years, wages, portrait rights, etc. will all have to be overthrown, which is also a considerable resistance.
Although Paratic is very optimistic about swaps, he himself should be well aware of the difficulties. He has tried swaps with Barcelona and Milan this season, but they failed.
For rich teams, it is more difficult to directly improve combat effectiveness through exchanges; and for those small and medium-sized teams that are known for cultivating monsters, they certainly hope to get funds to maintain club operations. Therefore, if swap transactions want to become the mainstream of the market, the possibility is not too great. In addition to transactions of 100 million yuan level, it is difficult to reappear, and even the activity of the transfer market will also decline. Keeping the players on hand and playing steadily to realize the value is the most appropriate way for the club to survive.